Mark Carney: EU has improved UK openness and dynamism, but created stability problems

Mark Carney, November 2013 by Financial Stability Board

In a speech that many political hacks view as a bid to support Britain remaining in the European Union, Bank of England governor Mark Carney noted a mixed but mostly positive economic story for the country’s involvement in the bloc.

The gist of Carney’s speech, which can be read in its entirety online, is best summarised by the following paragraph near the end:

“Overall, EU membership has increased the openness of the UK economy, facilitating dynamism but also creating some monetary and financial stability challenges for the Bank of England to manage. Thus far, we have been able to meet these challenges.”

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Diane Abbott defends John McDonnell’s fiscal reversal against sceptical John Humphrys

Diane Abbott, May 2012 by Policy Exchange

Hackney MP Diane Abbott went on Radio 4 on Tuesday morning in a bid to rectify the damage caused by news that a civil war had broken out among Labour MPs after the leadership reversed its position on the government’s fiscal charter.

A bemused John Humphrys provoked laughter from Abbott as she attempted to dispel the view that Labour’s chancellor John McDonnell believes “the deficit can go hang”, after it emerged he does not support the government’s plans to balance the budget after investment spending is taken into account.

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Was Jeremy Hunt right? Do benefit cuts for the poor encourage them to work?

Unemployed, January 2010 by James Lee

There is a long grumble on the left of British politics that whilst we are told rich need less financial burdens to be enticed into working, the poor need more financial burdens to achieve the same effect.

It is not an unfair characterisation, at least of some views on the right. On Monday health minister Jeremy Hunt was caught out backing cuts to tax credits using this very logic, saying the cuts were “a very important cultural signal”:

“My wife is Chinese. We want this to be one of the most successful countries in the world in 20, 30, 40 years’ time. There’s a pretty difficult question that we have to answer, which is essentially: are we going to be a country which is prepared to work hard in the way that Asian economies are prepared to work hard, in the way that Americans are prepared to work hard? And that is about creating a culture where work is at the heart of our success.”

Proponents of this view often invoke the so-called “welfare trap” or “poverty trap”. They claim that the unemployed are discouraged from getting into work because the money they receive on benefits is greater than the money they would receive in any low-level job, so it is rational to remain a shirker.

A more nuanced version of this involves crunching numbers to take account of benefits, earned income and taxes to work out how much money a person walks away with.

Since some benefits are revoked once a person is making a given amount of money, this can create what is known as a “welfare cliff”, in which one’s net income remains flat or even declines as they advance up the pay scale. An example of this effect can be found in the City of Chicago:

Welfare Cliff Chart, City of Chicago, Illinois Policy InstituteSource: Illinois Policy Institute

One should note that this does not disincentivise work, but it does incentivise people to remain on benefits and refuse promotions with greater pay, since they are walking away with less money.

But in truth it may be more complicated. A study from the rightwing American think tank the Cato Institute published in 2013 was pooh-poohed by the journalist Josh Barro in a piece for Business Insider, where he argued that the qualification process for benefits was more complex than the researchers had assumed, and thus work was more attractive to more people than the researchers had suggested.

Even so, he did said that poverty traps exist, and could only be mitigated by phasing out benefits (so as you earn more your benefits shrink) or reducing the benefits. How common these traps are is contested by both sides.

But all of this considers merely the economic and not the psychological effects of having a job. As Robert Nielsen, an economics blogger, argued in an award-winning essay on welfare traps:

“A job is not simply a way to make money, it is also part of an individual’s identity. Unemployed workers suffer psychological damage from their lack of a job. They suffer from a higher rate of mental illness than those working and gain a boost in mental wellness when re-employed.”

This is a point that Hunt picked up on in his remarks at the Tory conference, where he said that how a person earns their money matters: “It matters if you are earning that yourself, because if you are earning it yourself you are independent and that is the first step towards self-respect.”

Of course, this would suggest that those on benefits already have a significant incentive to find paid work. But no doubt the debate will rumble on regardless.

Image Credit – Unemployed, January 2010 by James Lee

Low Pay Commission chief: minimum wage hike may cost more than 60,000 jobs

English coins, July 2010 by Images Money

The head of the Low Pay Commission warned on Sunday that the minimum wage hike proposed by chancellor George Osborne may cost more than the 60,000 jobs previously predicted.

David Norgrove, chair of the independent body responsible for recommending what the minimum wage should be, claimed that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s estimate for job losses following the minimum wage rise was not as certain as it appeared.

Speaking to the Financial Times, he said:

“[The OBR’s] estimate of 60,000 is as good as anybody else’s; they’re a very expert group of people, but they’re hugely uncertain. I think it’s probably a bit of an exaggeration saying nobody has a clue, but I think they’re extremely uncertain.”

Minimum wages have been controversial among economists since before governments in the Western world began putting them into place, with many fearing that a pay floor might price the low-skilled out of the jobs market.

Under Tory plans unveiled in July the minimum wage is set to rise to £7.20 an hour for over 25s next April, up from £6.70 today for over 21s, and later to £9 for over 25s in 2020 – a higher hike than the commission would recommend at present.

Norgrove has previously said the Low Pay Commission’s research has shown no signs of increased unemployment as a result of the minimum wage since its introduction in Britain in 1999, but he worries that the “living wage” proposed by Osborne will disproportionately hit the care, retail and hospitality sectors.

If this happened, he said, it would mean that local government would have to increase spending in care, even as councils face ongoing pressure to cut spending as part of Osbo’s austerity drive.

Norgrove also claimed the commission was informed about the rise just a few days before Osborne announced it in July, promoting it as a “living wage” in a bid to move into Labour’s territory just as the Tories sought to rebrand themselves as a “workers party”.

The chair can be seen in the video below discussing the effect the minimum wage has had on low wages since its creation under Tony Blair’s New Labour government:

A full version of the Financial Times interview can be read here.

Image Credit – English coins, July 2010 by Images Money

Ed Miliband’s spin doctor soon to be working for City of London

Bob Roberts on Daily Politics, May 2015

One of the spin doctors employed by Ed Miliband, who spectacularly lost the general election in May, is to head up comms for the borough in both a commercial and political capacity.

Bob Roberts, formerly of Press Association and the Daily Mirror, was part of Labour’s team of three spin doctors who helped craft Miliband’s attacks on “predatory capitalism”, alienating many businesses across Britain.

He is also part of the same group that failed to establish Labour as an economically credible party with the electorate, which political scientists have highlighted as one of the two main factors that contributed to the party’s defeat.

The other reason, Miliband’s poor credibility as leader, was not even accepted by Roberts in the wake of the defeat, with the spin doctor telling the BBC’s Daily Politics that he did not accept voters did not trust the Labour leader:

“In the end, a lot of people thought Ed had a decent campaign. Ed came across as exactly who he was, a decent man for ideas and principle.”

Instead Roberts laid the defeat at the feet of the Scottish National Party, which demolished Labour in Scotland:

“There was a social and political revolution in Scotland which neither Ed Miliband or the Labour Party could do anything about. It swept us away north and affected us south.”

But at a Hansard Society event early in September, John Curtice of Strathclyde University specifically played down the importance of prospective deal between the SNP and Labour in moving votes, despite its centrality to later Tory campaigning.

Roberts said he was “delighted” to take on the role in the City, which will begin on November 2nd.

John Barradell, chief executive and town clerk of the City, said: “My colleagues and I are looking forward to working with Bob, who will bring a wealth of experience to this role.”

At least someone’s making a buck after Labour’s meltdown…

Image Credit – Bob Roberts on Daily Politics, May 2015