Last year I calculated that the base rate for sitting prime ministers’ odds of fighting the next general election is lower than you might expect. When there is the potential for this to happen, prime ministers only end up fighting the election two-thirds of the time. Otherwise they are replaced beforehand.
Boris Johnson looked impregnable after his election victory in December 2019. The year or so since has not gone quite so well. Brexit has been completed, but this has taken a backseat to his government’s handling of the pandemic, with Conservative MPs voting against the lockdown restrictions and many of the public unimpressed.
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