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Category: Forecast

Forecast

Biden’s odds of completing his first term aren’t that different to Trump’s

Posted on January 20, 2021 by Jimmy Nicholls / 0 Comment

It is less common than it should be for pundits to lay out predictions in a falsifiable way. Many are simply overconfident about what can be guessed about the f...

Forecast

Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election? (Part 3)

Posted on January 15, 2021 by Jimmy Nicholls / 0 Comment

Last year I calculated that the base rate for sitting prime ministers’ odds of fighting the next general election is lower than you might expect. When the...

Forecast

Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election? (Part 2)

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Jimmy Nicholls / 0 Comment

Back in May I noted that despite Boris Johnson’s commanding majority in Parliament, the broad odds on him fighting the next election were mixed. To quote ...

Forecast

Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election?

Posted on May 10, 2020 by Jimmy Nicholls / 0 Comment

It is never too early to wonder whether our prime minister will still be in office by the next general election. The Right Dishonourable asked whether Donald Tr...

Donald Trump caricature for presidency longevity forecast
Forecast

Forecast: Will Donald Trump serve a full four-year presidential term?

Posted on March 7, 2017 by Jimmy Nicholls / 1 Comment

Almost two months into what is slated to be the most controversial American presidency since the Second World War, and pundits in Washington, DC, must be runnin...

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