Biden’s odds of completing his first term aren’t that different to Trump’s
It is less common than it should be for pundits to lay out predictions in a falsifiable way. Many are simply overconfident about what can be guessed about the f...
Category: Forecast
Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election? (Part 3)
Last year I calculated that the base rate for sitting prime ministers’ odds of fighting the next general election is lower than you might expect. When the...
Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election? (Part 2)
Back in May I noted that despite Boris Johnson’s commanding majority in Parliament, the broad odds on him fighting the next election were mixed. To quote ...
Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election?
It is never too early to wonder whether our prime minister will still be in office by the next general election. The Right Dishonourable asked whether Donald Tr...
Forecast: Will Donald Trump serve a full four-year presidential term?
Almost two months into what is slated to be the most controversial American presidency since the Second World War, and pundits in Washington, DC, must be runnin...