Rejoining the EU is a harder sell than remaining
Part of the argument against leaving the European Union was the huge rigmarole it would entail. Unrolling 40 years of integration was always going to be tricky,...
Category: Forecast
Scottish independence has little to no historical precedent
When the Covid-19 pandemic lifts, Boris Johnson will have one more crisis left to deal with: the potential breakup of the United Kingdom. Lately the Scottish Na...
The SDP has little chance of changing British politics
It seems a long time ago when serious people were discussing a split within Labour. Jeremy Corbyn was proving a disastrous leader, but MPs couldn’t convin...
Biden’s odds of completing his first term aren’t that different to Trump’s
It is less common than it should be for pundits to lay out predictions in a falsifiable way. Many are simply overconfident about what can be guessed about the f...
Will Boris Johnson fight the next general election? (Part 3)
Last year I calculated that the base rate for sitting prime ministers’ odds of fighting the next general election is lower than you might expect. When the...