Back in May I noted that despite Boris Johnson’s commanding majority in Parliament, the broad odds on him fighting the next election were mixed. To quote myself:
To conclude, I’d say there were 39 opportunities for sitting prime ministers to contest another general election, and in 26 of these cases the sitting prime minister did contest the next election. This gives us a base rate of 66.7%, or two-thirds.
In other words, any sitting prime minister will only fight the next general election two times out of three. This is without accounting for any of the specific conditions around Johnson, such as how he has governed, what external crises he is facing, and whether his colleagues in Westminster like him.
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