Forecast: Will The Labour Party Split Under Jeremy Corbyn?

Withered Rose, December 2014 by montillon.a

Since the selection of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party last summer, pundits across the spectrum have mused of a potential split in Britain’s main leftwing party.

Nowadays there is a stark divide between Labour’s centrist parliamentarians and the party’s leftist leadership, with the general party members siding with the latter.

There is also precedent within living memory of a split, Britain having seen an iteration of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) spin off from Labour in the early 1980s.

With a new leadership contest in which Owen Smith takes on Corbyn for the leadership title, the possibility of the flat-capping wearing hard leftist cementing his control over the party seems to provide Labour MPs with a good opportunity to leave.

But will a split happen under the leadership of Corbyn, and before the next general election?

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Forecast: Will Britain Really Leave the EU?

Houses of Parliament, June 2011 by Leonard Bentley v2

You may have heard that Britain, a small country in the north-west of Europe, recently voted to leave the European Union (EU), by a narrow margin of 51.9 to 48.1 percent.

The result mostly crept up on the political, media and corporate establishments (not to mention the bookies), who had thought that Britons would cleave to the perceived safety of the status quo, even as polls in the week prior to the vote signalled otherwise.

Since the outcome was revealed on June 23rd many have predicted that it could be undone by legal or political shenanigans. The lawyer David Allen Green has even claimed that Article 50, the legal mechanism for Britain quitting the EU, might never be invoked.

All of which leaves an obvious question: After the referendum result, is Britain actually going to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU? And will it do it by 2020, the year the next general election is scheduled for?

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