Who might replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader?
Questions over Keir Starmer’s leadership will die down over the next few weeks, but the local elections have hurt his authority. It’s also never too...
Category: Forecast
Rejoining the EU is a harder sell than remaining
Part of the argument against leaving the European Union was the huge rigmarole it would entail. Unrolling 40 years of integration was always going to be tricky,...
Scottish independence has little to no historical precedent
When the Covid-19 pandemic lifts, Boris Johnson will have one more crisis left to deal with: the potential breakup of the United Kingdom. Lately the Scottish Na...
The SDP has little chance of changing British politics
It seems a long time ago when serious people were discussing a split within Labour. Jeremy Corbyn was proving a disastrous leader, but MPs couldn’t convin...
Biden’s odds of completing his first term aren’t that different to Trump’s
It is less common than it should be for pundits to lay out predictions in a falsifiable way. Many are simply overconfident about what can be guessed about the f...